BNPL in MENA & GCC: Growth Drivers, Market Dynamics, and the Road Ahead

The Buy Now, Pay Later (BNPL) sector is gaining serious traction across the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) and Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) markets. Accelerated digital adoption, changing consumer habits, and a collective push for broader financial inclusion are turning installment-style payments into a fixture of the region’s fintech and retail landscapes.

BNPL’s explosive growth and market size

The Middle East BNPL market is forecast to grow 19.4 percent year-on-year in 2025, reaching US $5.79 billion. After posting a 28.8 percent CAGR between 2021 and 2024, analysts still expect a healthy 15.2 percent CAGR through 2030, pushing the market past US $11.7 billion by decade’s end. Across Africa and the Middle East combined, gross merchandise value is set to climb from US $7.5 billion in 2023 to US $19.5 billion in 2029.

Key drivers of BNPL adoption

A white paper from Tamara demonstrates the true impact of BNPL in the region:

• Youthful, digital-first demographics – Roughly half the region’s population is under 30, and this cohort overwhelmingly prefers mobile-first, friction-free financial tools. BNPL’s app-centric experience matches those expectations.
  
• E-commerce boom – Online purchases already generate ~70 percent of BNPL GMV in Saudi Arabia and the UAE, and the channel’s growth rate is outpacing global averages through 2026. In-store BNPL is also accelerating as large retailers roll out omnichannel options.
  
• Financial-inclusion tailwinds – With credit-card penetration still modest, BNPL’s low/no-interest installments and fast, document-light onboarding open formal credit to millions previously excluded.
  
• Investor confidence – Regional fintech funding has soared. BNPL’s share of MENA fintech capital grew 10× between 2019 and 2022, fueling market-entry incentives for both local scale-ups and global heavyweights.
  

Regional leaders and home-grown innovation

• Tamara and Tabby (Saudi Arabia & UAE) – multi-million-user platforms whose white-label APIs and retailer partnerships embed BNPL at checkout across thousands of stores.
  
• Cashew Payments (UAE) – interest-free plans and value-added merchant analytics extend affordability and boost conversion.
  
• MNT Halan, ValU, Shahry & Sympl (Egypt) – hybrid BNPL–micro-lending models that layer bill pay, cash-out, and "save now, pay later" flows onto the same rails, targeting Egypt’s sizable unbanked segment.
  

Consumer impact and penetration

BNPL has already overtaken credit cards by roughly 10 percentage points in Saudi Arabia and the UAE, hitting a 31 percent adoption rate. Nearly half of shoppers in both markets used a BNPL option at least once in 2022. Flexible repayment schedules, minimal eligibility checks, and full-stack mobile experiences continue to pull both banked and under-banked consumers into the fold.

The road ahead

BNPL’s regional growth shows little sign of plateauing. Expect to see:

1. Deeper omnichannel integration – as large brick-and-mortar chains deploy QR and POS integrations that mirror online flows, as highlighted in the Middle East BNPL market report.
   
2. Heightened regulatory clarity – central banks are already drafting frameworks aimed at standardizing disclosures, fee structures, and risk limits to ensure sustainable expansion, as discussed in recent market research.
   
3. Product-stack convergence – from loyalty-linked installment plans to AI-driven credit scoring engines that price risk in real time, BNPL will blur further into embedded finance offerings, according to Tamara’s white paper.
   

With its ability to lift consumer spending, drive merchant growth, and widen access to credit, BNPL is set to remain a transformative force across MENA and the GCC. Forward-thinking lenders and retailers that invest early in robust credit-decisioning infrastructure will be best placed to capture the next wave of opportunity.

How Synapse can help

At Synapse Analytics, we work with leading financial institutions, fintechs, and retailers to power real-time, AI-driven decisioning across onboarding, scoring, and credit lifecycle management. Our platform enables BNPL providers to underwrite more efficiently and confidently, using alternative data and machine learning models tailored to regional markets. Whether you're launching your first installment offering or scaling an existing product across MENA and GCC, Synapse helps you make smarter, faster credit decisions without compromising on risk control.

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Have thoughts on BNPL risk analytics or embedded-finance rollouts? Let’s continue the conversation — reach out to the Synapse Analytics team.